ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY back above 155.00

• Federal Reserve speeches on Wednesday from Cook, Collins, Barr, Bowman
• Barclays forecast GBP/USD to 1.30 and EUR/GBP to 0.80 over the coming quarters
• Kyle Bass says China setting up for a Taiwan invasion
• Chinese mutual fund houses cutting exchange-traded fund (ETF) fees
• Japan’s exports in October rebounded from a 43-month low – recap
• European Central Bank President Lagarde speaking Wednesday + Escriva & de Guindos
• Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaking Wednesday
• Australia’s Fiscal Challenges: Treasurer Chalmers’ Economic Update
• Nomura flag higher tariffs, weaker global demand, more policy uncertainty to weigh on Asia
• ICYMI – China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for November, as expected
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1935 (vs. estimate at 7.2386)
• “Yen Weakens as Japan’s Verbal Warnings Appear to Be Losing Effectiveness”
• People’s Bank of China leaves its interest rates unchanged, as expected
• JP Morgan 2025 US outlook – unemployment rise, growth downshift, Core PCE infl still > 2%
• UK – Official statistics painting an overly pessimistic picture of labour market
• Australian Leading Index first clear ‘above-trend’ result since November 2023
• Japan October trade balance -461bn yen (expected -360bn yen)
• Former Fed Reserve Gov Warsh for Treasury Secretary? On irresponsible government spending
• US federal govmt debt to rocket to 122% of GDP – higher volatility, higher interest rates
• Trump said to consider Crypto lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén to lead SEC Chair
• Despite the trend higher in the US 10 year Treasury yield stocks have further 2024 upside
• ICYMI – Chinese vessel spotted where Baltic Sea cables were severed
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 19 Nov: CAD moves higher w/higher CPI. USD is mixed.
• Oil – private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs expectations
• US broader indices close higher. Dow industrial average moves lower.
• Fed’s Barr speaking, doesn’t comment on the economy or monetary policy
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 20 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

USD/JPY
ticked net higher during the session, breaching above 155.00 again.
News flow from Japan was quiet with, most notably, nothing in the way
of verbal intervention from Japanese authorities to slow the yen’s fall.

From
the data calendar we had Japanese trade data for October. These
showed a rise for exports y/y during the month, rebounding from a
43-month low in September.

Blackstone is near agreement to buy a Tokyo office complex. The deal is worth around 400bn yen (approximately 2.6bn USD) , which would be one of the most expensive real estate transactions in Japan.

There
was activity in China. China’s unchanged monthly loan prime rate
(LPR) fixings left the one-year LPR at 3.1%, and the five-year at
3.6%, after 25 bp cuts to each last month. The on-hold decisions were
a unanimous expectation.

• USD/CNH
  climbed after the People’s Bank of China set the daily USD/CNY
  reference rate about 450 points lower than the neutral estimate of
  7.2385. The PBoC is seeking to prop up the yuan (damping USD/CNY) in
  this way but markets are taking it lower regardless (against the super USD at least!).
• Fees
  for ETF were cut, another effort to support stock markets.

***

Major
FX tracked limited ranges with some USD weakness early (EUR, GBP,
AUD, NZD, CAD all higher before retracing).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.