A psychological need for certainty is associated with radical right voting

A new study published in the journal Personality and Individual Differences suggests that a person’s ability to handle uncertain situations plays a role in their political choices. The research provides evidence that people who struggle with ambiguity tend to favor rigid ideologies, which in turn increases their likelihood of supporting radical right political parties. These findings highlight how basic psychological responses to an increasingly complex world can shape broader political movements.

Past research hints that broad personality traits influence voting behavior, but the exact pathway has remained somewhat unclear. To explore this dynamic, the researchers focused on a psychological concept called tolerance for ambiguity.

Tolerance for ambiguity refers to how well a person can process complex, contradicting, or unfamiliar information without feeling threatened. People with a high tolerance for ambiguity generally accept that the world is messy and complicated. Those with a low tolerance for ambiguity tend to prefer black-and-white thinking, seeking out clear rules and simple answers. The scientists proposed that this specific psychological trait acts as a bridge between foundational personality traits and political ideology.

“This study was inspired by both a theoretical gap and real-world developments. While previous research suggested that personality traits are indirectly related to support for radical right parties, the psychological mechanism behind this link remained unclear,” said study authors Almuth Lietz, a research associate at the German Center for Integration and Migration Research and a doctoral candidate at Goethe University Frankfurt, and Sabrina Jasmin Mayer, a political sociology professor at the University of Bamberg.

“We aimed to address this by proposing tolerance for ambiguity as a mediating factor. At the same time, the rise of radical right parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) highlights the societal importance of understanding how people cope with uncertainty in complex social and political contexts.”

They based their work on the psychological entropy theory. This scientific theory suggests that human personality is deeply shaped by how individuals manage uncertainty and the anxiety it brings. According to this framework, an unpredictable world creates a sense of psychological disorder. People are motivated to reduce this disorder to feel secure. The researchers hypothesized that individuals who are less tolerant of ambiguity develop a strong need for certainty.

This desire for clarity might make right-wing authoritarianism, anti-immigrant sentiments, and populist attitudes highly appealing to them. Right-wing authoritarianism is an ideological stance characterized by strict obedience to traditional authorities, aggressive feelings toward those who break social norms, and a strong preference for conventional morals. Populist attitudes involve a specific worldview that favors popular sovereignty and sees society as divided into two warring groups.

These populist groups are typically viewed as the pure, homogeneous ordinary people and a corrupt elite class. Anti-immigrant sentiment provides a simplified way to view marginalized groups as a source of societal problems. The researchers wanted to test if low tolerance for ambiguity leads to these three ideological views.

Ultimately, they sought to determine if these views drive votes for the Alternative for Germany, a prominent radical right party. To test these ideas, the scientists used data from an online panel survey conducted in Germany between November 2020 and June 2021. The sample consisted of 1,635 adults ranging in age from 18 to 74.

The group was selected using mathematical quotas based on age, gender, and geographic region to approximate the general German population. The researchers also intentionally included a high percentage of people with a migration background to ensure diverse perspectives. Participants then completed several standardized psychological questionnaires.

First, they answered questions designed to measure the fundamental Big Five personality traits. These traits include openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism. Next, the survey assessed the participants’ tolerance for ambiguity by asking how they felt about unfamiliar situations and challenging perspectives.

The researchers also measured the participants’ individual levels of right-wing authoritarianism, populist attitudes, and anti-immigrant sentiment. Finally, participants rated how likely they were to vote for the Alternative for Germany on a mathematical scale. This scale ranged from zero, meaning very unlikely, to ten, meaning very likely.

The scientists used statistical models to analyze the relationships between these different survey responses. They found that a lower tolerance for ambiguity is strongly associated with higher levels of right-wing authoritarianism. People who struggled with uncertainty were also noticeably more likely to express populist attitudes and negative feelings toward immigrants.

“We were particularly surprised by the comparatively strong association between low tolerance for ambiguity and right-wing authoritarianism, compared to the more moderate associations with populist attitudes and anti-immigrant sentiment,” Lietz and Mayer told PsyPost. “This suggests that right-wing authoritarianism may be especially closely linked to epistemic motivations related to uncertainty reduction.”

These rigid ideological views were linked to voting preferences. Stronger right-wing authoritarianism, populist attitudes, and anti-immigrant sentiments all predicted a higher likelihood of voting for the Alternative for Germany. Populist attitudes showed an especially strong connection to supporting this specific radical right party.

The scientists also examined how foundational personality traits fit into this picture. They found that people who scored higher in openness to experience and extraversion tended to have a higher tolerance for ambiguity. People who scored higher in neuroticism, which involves a tendency to experience anxiety, showed a lower tolerance for ambiguity.

These personality associations align with the idea that outgoing and open individuals actively explore unknown situations. This exploration may help build their tolerance for complexity over time. However, the researchers noted that the effect sizes connecting basic personality traits to ambiguity tolerance were quite small.

This suggests that while personality plays a role, it does not dictate a person’s ability to handle uncertainty on its own. The most robust finding remains the strong link between low ambiguity tolerance and the adoption of rigid political ideologies. These ideologies ultimately predict higher support for radical right candidates.

“Our findings suggest that support for radical right parties is not only about ideology itself, but also about how individuals cope with uncertainty,” Lietz and Mayer explained. “Lower tolerance for ambiguity is associated with a stronger preference for clear, unambiguous answers and structured worldviews. This heightened need for certainty is, in turn, linked to higher levels of right-wing authoritarianism, populist attitudes, and anti-immigrant sentiment, which ultimately relate to a greater propensity to vote for radical right parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD).”

While these findings provide insights into political behavior, the scientists caution against certain misinterpretations. First, the study relies on observational data, meaning it does not prove a direct cause-and-effect relationship. It is entirely possible that holding rigid political ideologies also reduces a person’s tolerance for ambiguity over time.

Additionally, having a low tolerance for ambiguity is a perfectly normal psychological disposition. The researchers emphasize that this trait should not be treated as a psychological defect. Similarly, the fundamental Big Five personality traits are neither inherently good nor bad.

“In line with psychological entropy theory, the associations between personality traits and tolerance for ambiguity can be understood as reflecting differences in motivational tendencies,” the researchers said. “Certain traits may make individuals more likely to enter and engage with novel, or uncertain situations, thereby increasing opportunities to develop greater tolerance for ambiguity over time. In this sense, personality traits may shape the opportunity to learn tolerance for ambiguity rather than directly determining it.”

The data was also collected during the early stages of the global pandemic, a period marked by unusually high levels of societal uncertainty. This unique historical context might have intensified the relationships between the desire for certainty and political ideology. The study also relied on a quota-based online sample.

Looking ahead, scientists plan to use longitudinal studies that track individuals over many years to better understand the causal dynamics at play. They also hope to test these psychological models in other countries to see if the same patterns hold true across different cultures.

“Understanding how people cope with uncertainty remains central to explaining contemporary political polarization and ideological shifts,” Lietz and Mayer added. “This study bridges personality psychology and political behavior research by highlighting epistemic motivations, particularly the need for certainty, as a key link between personality and ideology. It underscores the importance of psychological responses to uncertainty in understanding democratic resilience and the functioning of societies in complex times.”

The study, “Navigating Uncertainty: The Role of Tolerance for Ambiguity in Linking Personality Traits to Ideological Variables and Radical Right Voting,” was authored by Almuth Lietz and Sabrina Jasmin Mayer.