Prior was -7.7Revenue index +10.1 vs +8.7 prior (highest in 13 months)Employment +2.0 vs +0.6 priorCompany outlook +1.2 vs -3.1 priorSix month index +17.4vs +12.4 prior
Comments in the report:
Utilities
I feel the economy is getting better.
Professional, scientific and technical services
Our employees are very overworked. We have had a very
difficult time finding qualified engineers. Our main emphasis for the
next six months will be to fill some key positions.The shortage in the experienced professional workforce
continues. We’re in a medium market, and there is staff poaching going
on. Competitors are throwing money and flex-hour options to entice
employees to change jobs.The anticipated rate decrease may improve business activity in the fourth quarter.The recent rate decrease will ease some of the trepidation
of the upcoming fiscal year. Hopefully, in the coming months, this will
translate into available funding for business expansion.The November election is the determiner of how things will improve or not.The overall business activity has increased slightly in the
commercial real estate market but has slowed in the residential real
estate. We are encouraged by the increase in the commercial sector and
feel the residential sector will see some improvement in the months to
come. A decrease in the interest rate is much needed.The rate cut will help our clients’ cash flow and thus create more spending/revenue.
Management of companies and enterprises
Uncertainty is high. We are putting capital into our
company for the first time since its inception to keep the operations
afloat. A lot of our workers are contractors, and they’re really
suffering.
Administrative and support services
The rising cost of living in Dallas has impacted both our
employees’ financial situations and the labor costs required to retain
them in an increasingly competitive market. High housing prices in
particular have hindered our ability to attract and retain skilled
technicians from across the U.S.Expectation of lower interest rates is driving most of the behavior currently.Our issues include new employees passing drug tests. Hiring quality employees is becoming more and more difficult.For more than 20 years we have seen the market soften in
October of a federal election year. It has not proven to be
outcome-dependent, but it forces an earlier slowdown than is typical in
the fourth quarter, which is already soft due to the impacts of the
holidays.Interest rates going down could spark a lot of home
purchases. In general, that would help us, as more of our clients want
to sell property than buy. The uncertainty is up because we do not know
if that will happen.
Educational services
Demographic shifts and international issues are starting to
impact college enrollment in Texas. We had been immune to these in the
last few years, but we’re now feeling the effects.We feel strongly that inflationary pressures are moving in
the right direction, and the employment picture seems to be more
favorable to a full-employment scenario.
Nursing and residential care facilities
The cost of services has increased specifically in the area
of electric utility charges, which have increased 100 percent over the
past contract period. The company outlook has worsened based on the
challenge to our nonprofit status by the county.
Accommodation
The number of employees going back to school/college
lessened our hours for those employees, and part-time employee hours
increased as a result.We are in a very unclear moment in terms of the economy and
where consumers’ minds are. There is still a perception of high
prices, but it looks like inflation may be easing. It may level out if
the Fed reduces interest rates and more economic data show we are back
in the 2-3 percent range for inflation.
Rental and leasing services
The two biggest policy factors that worry us are
immigration demagoguery choking off the much-needed labor supply and
tariffs fouling up our smooth and cost-efficient supply chain from
Korea.
Real estate
In our multifamily property management business, we are
finding greater success working with lenders. As high interest rates
continue to catch up to borrowers with floating-rate debt, lenders are
being forced to step in and take control, either through foreclosure or
accepting deeds in lieu of. They seem to be increasingly accepting the
fact that they will have to support assets financially for the next
year or so until the market catches up enough for them to unload the
collateral at a price that keeps them mostly whole. Rate cuts aren’t
going to save them at this point (unless the cuts are huge), but rate
cuts will help the cycle begin anew.Lower permanent mortgage rates are one precursor to improved commercial real estate activity.
Specialty trade contractors
Our business is weather dependent. Summer was milder, so revenue decreased.
Support activities for transportation
The new judicial reform in Mexico has increased the level
of uncertainty for all companies doing business on both sides of the
border. Our legal team in Mexico City suggested caution in relation to
future investment. Houston port strikes are a week away, adding to the
uncertainty. The trucking industry is still in the throes of a
recession due to excess trucking capacity in the market. Many, if not
most, carriers are running at cost.
Warehousing and storage
The rate cut had a calming impact in the medium term.
That’s balanced by the impending strike at container ports, which we
believe will have an outsized impact on economic conditions over the
next several months.
Credit intermediation and related activities
The interest rate environment may change and would benefit
financial institutions, but regulation continues to increase
substantially. The election could change the current administration’s
approach to regulation depending on which party wins it. Excessive
regulations have been an extreme burden for the banking industry with
the greatest impact to community banks.Commercial real estate financing related to investment
sales remains very low. However, there are expectations the cost of
debt capital will go down following an anticipated reduction in
short-term interest rates.
Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities
The recent Fed reduction in interest rates has improved business confidence and outlook.Capital cost is prohibitive for business growth.
Insurance carriers and related activities
We think once the presidential election is behind us and current
insured property losses are lower than last year, the economy should
improve. We are having more qualified candidates for hire coming into
focus for us lately.
Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Nonstore retailers
We are very worried about our labor situation and business environment in the long term.
Electronics and appliance stores
We are only selling single-piece, unplanned purchases with
extreme price pressure. Positive cash flow is not sustainable at this
time.
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
Affordability remains low. The interest rate drop will make
little difference in the near term. The cost of doing business is
increasing as margins decline. Year-over-year profit is down 20
percent.Retail traffic has slowed down noticeably in the last couple of months.
Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods
The Fed decreasing rates will be well received. That said,
we have been a big fan of raising rates. Money has been too cheap, and
it finally caught up in the form of inflation.
Food services and drinking places
The energy industry continues to see more and more mergers and
acquisitions, which will impact our community. With all that said, we
believe as rates drop, energy activity and home sales will increase.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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