Photo: Yuki Iwamura/AP Photo
Eric Adams isn’t going anywhere. For now, at least.
On Wednesday, as it became more apparent that the mayor would be indicted, political aides and supporters began talking and texting to map out a strategy: Get through the first 48 hours without major political and civic leaders calling for him to step aside and then live to fight out what is now a daunting reelection campaign.
They were at least partially successful.
By Thursday afternoon, even as a number of New York lawmakers were calling for Adams to resign — and Al Sharpton gave less than full-throated support — it became increasingly clear that he would not.
“They are going to take this thing from his cold, dead hands,” said one political strategist close to the Adams operation.
On the bright side for Adams, Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the House of Representatives who has long sparred with the mayor, has not joined fellow members of the New York City delegation like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and (almost) Nydia Velázquez in calling for him to step down.
“Like every other New Yorker and American, Eric Adams is entitled to the presumption of innocence.” Jeffries said. “A jury of the mayor’s peers will now evaluate the charges in the indictment and ultimately render a determination.”
A midmorning press conference with Black clergy supportive of the mayor was held not inside Gracie Mansion, the mayor’s residence, but outside in the rain and was marred by a loud protester who yelled through a bullhorn, “This is not a Black thing! This is a you thing! This is a you thing, Eric Adams!”
By aligning himself with members of the Black clergy, Adams has been trying to rally support among members of communities of color who have felt victimized by overzealous prosecutors. The Adams approach has been to suggest that the charges are politically motivated and have come from a federal Justice Department angry at Adams’s outspoken criticism of the Biden administration’s handling of the migrant crisis. Jewish leaders supportive of Adams, meanwhile, discussed circulating a letter that blames the prosecution as payback for Adams’s fervent support of Israel.
Meanwhile, in New York City political circles, the feeling was that as bad as the 57-page indictment from federal prosecutors is — detailing how the mayor solicited illegal campaign contributions and lavish overseas trips and paid back those favors by pushing projects his benefactors supported — it isn’t as bad as many were predicting, and it follows many of the same lines that were previously reported.
People who know Adams say that no matter how many left-leaning members of Congress or City Council members or state lawmakers call for him to step aside, no amount of pressure is likely to make him do so. For one thing, resigning would deprive the mayor of a meaningful chit he could use to bargain with prosecutors. Plus, as a candidate for office, Adams can raise money for his campaign, which he can then transfer to his legal defense. And the Supreme Court has so narrowly tailored the definition of political bribery that what once seemed like cut-and-dried corruption cases have recently been overturned on appeal.
And while some progressives have hoped that Governor Kathy Hochul would utilize her authority to remove Adams from office, the chances of that happening are close to zero, particularly if senior members of the House delegation support the mayor.
Still, the primary election in New York City is almost exactly nine months away, and all indications are that the Southern District of New York is looking to move quickly, in part so that U.S. Attorney Damian Williams does not face the prospect of putting a mayor running for reelection on trial.
Should Adams trade in his office in a deal, it would trigger a nonpartisan special election to replace him while public advocate Jumaane Williams serves as acting mayor — but only if Adams resigns before March 27, 2025. If Adams does so after that, the late-June primary would go on as planned and the new mayor would be sworn in after the general election in November.
For the candidates and operatives plotting to run in 2025, here is where things get tricky. As of now, the declared candidates are city comptroller Brad Lander, former city comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Senators Zellnor Myrie and Jessica Ramos. Should Adams resign, Williams would serve as a quasi-incumbent in the race, but he has indicated to allies that he is not certain he would run for mayor.
Strategists affiliated with the announced campaigns say they hope Adams remains in the race. If not, he would be weakened and it would turn the race into a referendum against him. The labor unions, major donors, and Black and religious Jewish leaders who supported him in 2021 have not yet given an indication of rethinking their support. If that remains true, Adams would have a decent base to build on. And none of those groups is likely to look fondly at the prospect of a mayor who is well to Adams’s left, as all of the declared candidates are.
Looming over all these machinations, meanwhile, is Andrew Cuomo. Should Adams resign before March 27, the special election to replace him would be a sprint, and even the mayor’s current rivals admit that Cuomo would have a decided advantage based on name recognition alone.
Cuomo has signaled he would be unlikely to challenge Adams in 2025 and would get into the race only if Adams does not. People close to him, however, say that calculation is no longer true, if it ever was. Although Cuomo is said to prefer to run for his old job as governor, people close to him say he is anxious to get back into the political game and is almost certain to declare his candidacy once the presidential election is over.
Asked about the likelihood of the former governor jumping into the race, one person close to him was succinct: “100 percent chance.”
