The pressure is back on the euro now as traders are rebuffing expectations for a rate cut by the ECB in October. That comes after Rehn was out saying that the scale is tipping towards that now, at least in his view. It’s the first sign of any ECB policymaker confirming the recent shift in market pricing.
EUR/USD is down and while that also is in part due to the dollar keeping steadier, the euro is not finding much cheer elsewhere. EUR/JPY is down 0.3% to 159.40 levels and EUR/CHF down 0.2% to 0.9393. Both are also trading to fresh session lows currently.
In the case of EUR/USD, there are large option expiries at 1.1100 that could anchor price action a little.
But from a technical perspective, the downside momentum is starting to build. The minor support around 1.1121-25 has given way and now the key 4-hourly moving averages are starting to crack as well as seen above.
For now, the euro side of the equation has cast its vote. It’s now down to the dollar side of the equation to follow that up later.
When Wall Street enters, we’ll have the US ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings to work through.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
