Fed’s Musalem: Recent info suggests inflation risks have risen

• Risks to the jobs market have remain unchanged or have fallen
• Fed may be on the ‘last mile’ to price stability, inflation expected to converge to 2% over the medium term
• Monetary policy well posited, Fed can ‘judiciously and patiently’ judge income data to decide on further rate cuts
• Strong economy on track for a ‘solid’ fourth quarter
• Growth is broad-balanced and driven by consumption, income growth, productivity, supportive financial conditions and wealth effects
• Recent high productivity could prove durably structural but that remains uncertain
• Core inflation remain elevated
• Pressure in services industries slowly abating

This is the third Fed official who has floated some more-hawkish hints. It’s hardly a signal of a pause in December but early 2025 is going to be interesting. There are meetings in January, March and May. Assuming a cut in Dec, there is one cut fully priced in for that period (and a smidge more).

That sounds about right based on the comments and data but that’s going to swing based on the next set of numbers and beyond.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.