Netanyahu won’t strike Iraian oil or nuclear targetsS&P index closes at a new record for the 46th time in the year. Dow at a new recordEconomic calendar in Asia – Fed’s Kashkari speakingMore from Waller: Right now a lot of recent high productivity growth is rebound from lowsFed’s Waller. Fed should proceed with more caution on rate cuts than was needed at SeptCrude oil futures settled at $73.83Israelis Netanyahu, Def Sec.Gallant will design Iranian response outside cabinet.What key events will be of interest this week?Senior Israeli security official: Response to Iranian attack will be strongBitcoin trades toward the September high as $66,508European shares closing higherMore Kashkari: Neutral rate is likely higher now than where it was pre-pandemicChina Announces CNY 6T treasury bond plan to support local debt & property mkt stabilityThe Earnings calendar this week includes Citi, BofA, J&J, Goldman, United, TSMC & NetflixKickstart the FX trading day for Oct. 14 with a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSDFed’s Kashkari: Economy in final stages of getting inflation back to 2%Germany’s Scholz on China and Taiwan: We assume no one will try to change by forceIsrael tells US, it will carry out a strong response to Hezbollah strike on military baseThe USD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session beginsForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar up slightly amid quiet markets
It was a quasi holiday in the US with the US bond market closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Canada was also off in celebration of the Thanksgiving Day holiday in their country.
US stocks were open and the Dow and S&P closed at yet another record level for the year. The S&P has now closed at a new record for the 46th time .
The Dow rose 0.47%, S&P rose 0.77% and the Nasdaq rose 0.87%. While the S&P and Dow continue to make new highs, the Nasdaq has not reached a new high since July 10. The index, however is now within 0.78% of a new record high at 18647.
There were no economic releases but Fed’s Kashkari and Fed’s Waller did speak:
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, speaking in Buenos Aires, stated that the U.S. economy is in the final stages of returning inflation to 2%. However, it remains uncertain how restrictive current monetary policy is. He noted that the job market remains robust, with recent data suggesting the labor market is not weakening quickly.
Kashkari mentioned that modest rate cuts may be appropriate moving forward, with future policy decisions being data-dependent. He also suggested that the neutral interest rate is likely higher than pre-COVID levels and could rise further if U.S. debt continues to increase.
Meanwhle, FOMC Governor Christopher Waller emphasized that the Fed should approach rate cuts with more caution than at the September meeting, calling for a gradual reduction in policy rates over the next year. He noted that the current policy rate is restrictive and that, if the economy performs as expected, the Fed can shift to a neutral stance at a deliberate pace.
Waller pointed out that recent productivity growth is largely a rebound from earlier lows, and unsustainable fiscal policy poses the biggest risk to the neutral rate (R-star).
He warned that continued reductions in labor demand could lead to higher unemployment but emphasized that the economy is in a “sweet spot” and must be maintained carefully. He also remarked that volatile data has created challenges for policymakers, and drastic tightening may be necessary to return to 2019 price levels.
Waller stated that if inflation drops below 2% or labor market conditions worsen, rate cuts could be front-loaded. Conversely, if inflation rises, the Fed could pause cuts. He highlighted that recent inflation data is disappointing, but the economy remains solid, with expected faster GDP growth in the second half of 2024. Despite potential setbacks from hurricanes and the Boeing strike, Waller expects payroll gains to moderate and unemployment to drift higher while staying historically low.
In the forex today, the USD is ending the day as the strongest of the major currencies with the CHF as the weakest:
In other markets, crude oil is selling off late in the session after the Washington Post reported that Israel PM Netanyahu would not target nuclear or oil facilities of Iran when they retaliate. Crude oil settled at $73.83 but is trading even lower at $71.90 as the clock ticks toward 5 PM ET.
Bitcoin moved higher and is trading at $65,900 – it’s highest level since September 29.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
