Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 18 Nov: USD corrects lower as yields reverse.Stocks mixed

• Mixed ending for US stocks to start the new trading week
• Economic calendar in Asia Tuesday, November 19, 2024 – RBA minutes
• Trump Media in advance talks to buy Crypto Platform BAKKT
• ECBs Vujcic: The risk of inflation undershooting has picked up
• WTI Crude oil settles $2.14 higher at $69.16
• BOEs Greene: UK services inflation is elevated but on a downward path
• Gold rallies sharply after last week’s tumble of -4.5%. Price is up 1.87% today
• Major European indices are closing mixed
• US Trump team (sans Elon Musk) supporting former Fed member Kevin Warsh as Treasury Sec.
• US NAHB housing market index for November 46 versus 43 estimate
• ECBs Stournaras: A 25 basis point cut by the end of the year is reasonable
• Foreign investors in C$ rises by $29.3B vs $10.33B last month (revised from $9.97B)
• Canada housing starts for Oct (annualized) 240.8K vs 240.0K estimate
• The technicals in play to start the new trading week in the forex
• ForexLive European FX news wrap: USD/JPY back up above 155.00 level
• ECB’s Makhlouf: The evidence would need to be overwhelming for 50 bps move in December
• ECB’s Makhlouf: I don’t think the job is done on taming inflation

Markets:

• Gold $48.79 or 1.90% at $2611.36
• US 10-year yield down -1.0 basis points at 4.415%
• US two year yield down -1.9 basis points at 4.282%
• WTI crude oil up $2.22 or 3.31% and $69.24
• S&P 500 rose 0.39%
• NASDAQ index rose 0.60%
• Russell 2000 rose 0.11%

The US dollar corrected lower in trading today as yields went from positive to negative intraday, and strong buying in the US dollar over the last six or seven days finally led to a corrective probing to the downside helped by technicals.

The only economic news was the NAHB housing market index for November which came in better than expected at 46 versus 43 estimate. That was good enough for the highest level since April (last month it came in at 43). However, a reading below 50 is considered negative for the housing market.

• Current conditions rose +2 to 49
• Expectations rose +7 to 64
• Buyer traffic rose +3 to 32
• Housing market index is and it’s highest level since April

the biggest mover in the market was the AUDUSD which rose 0.70% (USD fell). The USD was only higher on the day vs the JPY with a gain of 0.18%.

Below are the % changes of the USD vs the major currenies:

• EUR, -0.54%
• GBP, -0.48%
• JPY +0.18%
• CHF, -0.58%
• CAD, -0.50%
• AUD, -0.73%
• NZD -0.53%

Technically speaking:

• USDJPY: The USDJPY initially move lower in the early European session and tested its rising 200 hour moving average (currently at 154.40). The price bounced off that level rising to and through its 100 hour moving average currently at 155.258. The high price reached 155.348 before rotating back to the downside. The price is trading at 154.63 ahead of its rising 200-hour moving average of 154.408. Both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages will be key barometer’s for both buyers and sellers into the new trading day. Resistance at the 100-hour moving average of 155.258, and support at the 200 hour moving average at 154.408.
• EURUSD: The EURUSD moved higher in trading today and stretched to swing area resistance between 1.0600 and 1.0610. Sellers leaned and the price rotated lower. THe current prices trading at 1.0599 going into the new trading day. If the 1.0610 level can be broken, topside targets include 1.0649, and the triple bottom from late June and early July near 1.0665 – 1.0670. If resistance holds, a rotation back lower support between 1.0515 and 1.05316 is a initial targets.
• GBPUSD: The GBPUSD transport in the early US session at 1.26137, and gave buyers the go-ahead to push higher. The price entered a swing area between 1.2654 and 1.2685. The price is trading at 1.2677. Also in play is its falling 100-hour moving average of 1.2679. Get above and stay above is more bullish. Finding willing sellers against the level is more bearish.
• USDCAD; The USDCAD moved lower help by rising oil prices and the USD selling trend today. The price fell below the low price from last Friday’s trade at 1.4033 and also the 100-hour moving average currently at 1.40237. The current price is trading at 1.40166. Stay below the 1.4023 – 33 level keeps the sellers more in control at least in the short term. The 1.3978 level is the next target on the downside. That level corresponds with the high price from 2022.

Have a good morning, day, evening.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.