Oil survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build much larger than expectedMore from Fed’s Collins: Labor markets are in a good place overallRebound. Major indices close higher.Fed’s Collins says Fed predicts 50bp of cuts into year endAdvanced talks are underway to hold a phone call between Biden and Israel’s NetanyahuCrude oil settles at $73.57Israel’s defense minister Gallant will not be traveling to WashingtonIsrael is considering striking energy facilities in Iran – reportUS treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3-year notes at a high yield of 3.878%Atlanta Fed Pres. Bostic: Labor market has slowed down, but is not slowing or weakKinder Morgan buckling up pipeline in Florida.European equity close: The China glow fadesAtlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow +3.2% vs +2.5% priorMilton a Cat-4 storm and expected to remain as a major hurricane as it expands in sizeIsrael expected to target Iran’s military and intelligence sites – reportJamie Dimon: AI is real, is going to change an awful lot of thingsWhat are the technicals in play for the 3 major currency pairs today. Watch and learn.Canadian August trade balance billion -1.10 billion vs -0.50 billion expectedUS international trade balance for August $-70.4 billion vs -$70.6B est/last mo – $78.9BThe JPY is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session beginsForexlive European FX news wrap: Choppy price action persists
As the day comes to a close in the US, the NZD is ending as a shows the major currency pairs, while the CHF is the weakest. The NZD gains come after declines seen over the last 4/5 trading days, and also ahead of the RBNZ a rate decision in the new trading day (9 PM ET). The central bank is expected to coverage by 50 basis points.
Today, the NZDUSD traded between its 200-day moving average on the downside at 0.60974, and its 100-day moving average above at 0.61218 for most of the day before rallying into the close.The NZDUSD pair is currently trading at 0.6136 above both those key MA levels.
Through the rate decision, it will now take a move below the lower 200-day moving average and 0.60974 to tilt the bias more to the downside. Conversely, a move above the broken 38.2% retracement at 0.6176 would increase the bullish bias.
Looking at the USDJPY, the pair held support against an old ceiling going back to mid-August on the 4-hour chart (see chart below) near 147.338. The subsequent rise has now taken the price back above its 38.2% retracement at 148.116 (see chart below).
The EURUSD moved up today but found willing sellers near the 50% midpoint of the move up from the early August low at 1.0995. Staying below that level gave the sellers confidence to push lower. The price fell to 1.0960, but has bounced back to 1.0980. In the new trading day, the 1.0995 is close resistance. A move lower would look toward 1.0944 area.
Finally, the USDCHF fell early in the day and tested the old red box area. The price did enter into that box, but did find support at the rising 100 hour MA and bounced. The topside targets are 0.8607 and then the 38.2% at 0.8631. Get above the 38.2% would be needed to show the buyers are more in control after the recent break higher.
In the US debt market today, yields moved lower with a steeper bias:
US 2Y T-NOTE: Yield 3.9624%, Down -4.2 basis pointsUS 3Y T-NOTE: Yield 3.8675%, Down -3.6 basis pointsUS 5Y T-NOTE: Yield 3.8479%, Down -2.1 basis pointsUS 10Y T-NOTE: Yield 4.0158%, Down -1.0 basis pointsUS 30Y T-BOND: Yield 4.2974%, Down -0.7 basis points
The US treasury to auction off three or notes today at a high yield of 3.878%. That was higher than the WI level at the time of the auction of 3.871%. Despite the poor auction, yields to ultimately move back to the downside into the close.
In the US stock market, the major indices rebounded from yesterday’s decline:
Dow industrial average +126.13 points or 0.30% at 42080.37S&P index +55.19 points or 0.97% at 5751.13NASDAQ index rose 259.01 points or 1.45% at 18182.92
The small-cap Russell 2008 eked out a small 1.89 point gain or 0.09% at 2194.98.
In the European equity markets, most of the indices were lower with the exception of Spain’s Ibex:
German DAX, -0.20%France’s CAC, -0.72%UK’s FTSE 100 -1.36%Spain’s Ibex +0.15%Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.24%
Focus will be on the Asia-Pacific market with China and Hong Kong indices in the spotlight. China returned from their Golden week holiday yesterday and although the Shanghai index shares rose 4.59%, it was not on par with the gains in the Hang Seng index during the holiday week. The Hang Seng index yesterday felt -9.41% and Chinese stocks today in the US also fell sharply.
Tencent, -8.5%Nio, -8.03%Alibaba, -6.63%iShares MSCI China ETF, -10.81%
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
