Fed’s Bowman and Powell will both speak on Monday. Let the 25 vs. 50 battle (re) commence!US politics – US Vice President Harris raises $55 million in California fundraisersChinese stocks continue to surgeBank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene speaks on Monday, late NY timeJapan chief cabinet secretary Hayashi says no comment on daily share movesChina Caixin September Manufacturing PMI 49.3 (prior 50.4) Services 50.3 (prior 51.6)Australian August 2024 Private Sector Credit +0.5% m/m (expected +0.5%)China official PMI data: Manufacturing 49.8 (expected 49.5)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0074 (vs. estimate at 7.0098)Japanese govmt official says industrial output will bounce back in September on autosUSD/JPY higher to open the week – update after weekend news and Monday dataNew Zealand September business confidence 60.9 (prior 50.6)Japan data – August Industrial production -3.3% m/m (expected -0.9%)Japan August Retail Sales 2.8% y/y (expected 2.3%)The one word reason why Chinese authorities are piling into stimulus right now. Panic.Rabobank look for GBP to outperform EUR in the months aheadNot FX. Legendary singer-songwriter Kris Kristofferson has died.Talk of a Japanese election October 27US economy – “There is no denying it: among the best performing economies in 35+ years”Australia’s budget surplus is AUD15.8bn, way better than the 9.8bn expectedBrexit or Back In? UK finance minister to attend meeting of EU finance ministersWeekend – Taiwan on alert over ‘multiple waves’ of missile firing in inland ChinaHedge funds caught short China shares, huge losses exacerbated by Shanghai exchange glitchTrading New Zealand markets? NZ switched to daylight saving time over the weekendMore stimulus from China over the weekend – banks instructed to cut mortgage ratesTrade ideas thread – Monday, 30 September, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasMonday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 30 September 2024Austria’s far-right partly likely won general electionNewsquawk Week Ahead: US NFP, ISMs, EZ CPI, Japan Tankan & OPEC+ JMMCWeekly Market Outlook (30-04 October)Two to watch – Fed Chair Powell speech and NFP are bookend focal points this coming week
It
was the final trading day for Chinese markets ahead of the week-long
holidays. Markets close Tuesday 1 October and reopen on Tuesday 8
October. Over the weekend we had news of more stimulus from China,
the People’s Bank of China announced it’d be instructing banks to
lower mortgage rates for existing home loans before October 31. In
addition, three tier-1 cities (Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen)
announced easings on home buying. Also
from China today were disappointing September PMIs, both from the
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and S&P Global/Caixin. In the
light of all the stimulus announced last week in China these were
shrugged off, very emphatically. Chinese stock markets surged.
Japanese
stocks, on the other hand, were smashed lower. Fingers were pointed
at the prospect of higher interest rates, new PM Ishiba is in favour
of BoJ normalisation. A four big figure drop in USD/JPY on Friday
hasn’t helped either!
Japanese
data releases showed better retail sales, but poor industrial output
in August. A government official said production was weighed by poor
weather – a typhoon! – and will bounce back in September.
In
Japanese political news media reports are of a potential snap
election being called for October 27.
From
New Zealand we had improving business data. NZD/USD rose on the
session, as did AUD/USD.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
