Seven Fed speakers + September minutes on the Federal Reserve agenda Wednesday, October 9Morgan Stanley raised its Brent price forecast to $80 a barrel (from $75) for Q4 2024US inflation data due this week: BofA predicts a +0.1% m/m headline CPI, +0.3% m/m coreEuropean Central Bank speakers Wednesday include Villeroy and KazimirMorgan Stanley sees a cascade of European Central Bank rate cuts in the months aheadPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0568 (vs. estimate at 7.0565)More from the RBNZ: price indices signal a continued decline in consumer price inflationRBNZ cuts cash rate by 50bp, as widely expectedFormer BOJ official says next rate hike likely in January – PM Isheba won’t stop itTesla ($TSLA) to offer a 0% APR loan rate for new Model 3, Model Y finance orders in USFed Vice-chair Jefferson says Bank has not changed its approach to monetary policyRBA Assistant Gov Kent speech on Term Funding FacilityFed Vice-chair Jefferson says will watch incoming data, making decision meeting by meetingGuggenheim CIO says inflation of up to 4% could be a new normalJapan – Reuters Tankan report for October: Manufacturing sentiment rises from 7 month lowUS inflation data is due this week – here are 14 investment bank forecastsDeutsche Bank on S&P 500: “October in a presidential election year might be a struggle”FX option expiries for Wednesday 9 October 10am New York cutForexlive Americas FX news wrap 8 Oct:Some of the major currency pair following technicalsTrade ideas thread – Wednesday, 9 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideasMore from Fed’s Collins: Labor markets are in a good place overallFed’s Collins says Fed predicts 50bp of cuts into year end
NZD/USD
is lower on the session, dragging AUD/USD down with it (though not to
the same extent, AUD/NZD is higher) after the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand cut its cash rate target to 4.75%, down from 5.25%. This was
a widely expected move from the Bank. Curiously the Bank did not
offer up much in the way of explicit guidance for what is to come. I
don’t think saying another rate cut, likely 50bp again, is a very
strong probability at the next meeting, on November 27 is going too
far out on a limb, especially given the first meeting for 2025 is
nearly three months later on February 19.
We
had speakers from the US Federal Reserve, Boston’s Collins and Vice
Chair Jefferson. Both conveyed the message that while supporting the
50bp rate cut last month the November cut will not be of the same
magnitude. More in the points above from boht of them. Plenty more,
quite verbose they were.
A
former Bank of Japan official, one-time executive director in charge
of monetary policy Eiji Maeda, said the BOJ is likely to hike rates
again in January, that PM Isheba will not stand in the way.
Apart
from that NZD drop major FX was relatively range bound. It seems
Asian traders are happy to await the US CPI report on Thursday now.
Except
for Chinese equities, which got slammed lower again today.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
