Modern social conditions are not the cause of decrease in religiosity, study finds

A new analysis of 1989–2020 World/European Values Survey data found no evidence that modern social conditions—marked by high existential security, education, and urbanicity—cause a decrease in religiosity. National average increases in these factors did not predict decreased religiosity. The paper was published in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion.

Religiosity refers to the intensity and consistency of an individual’s religious beliefs, practices, and commitments. It includes personal faith, participation in rituals, adherence to moral codes, and engagement in a religious community. Religiosity often serves as a source of meaning, identity, and social cohesion while also shaping perspectives on broader societal and moral issues.

In early human communities, religiosity likely provided survival advantages by fostering social cohesion, cooperation, group identity, and resource sharing. Shared beliefs and rituals strengthened bonds within groups, reduced internal conflict, and offered frameworks for managing existential uncertainties.

While religiosity played a crucial role in early communities, modern societies enjoy relatively secure existences—lives are rarely in constant danger, people live in close proximity to others in cities, and education has undermined many traditional religious or spiritual concepts (e.g., superstitions, beliefs in magic, and miracles) by offering nonreligious explanations for natural phenomena and providing a sense of mastery over the environment. This led some researchers to hypothesize that modern social conditions might decrease religiosity. Indeed, studies show that average religiosity has declined in some countries, particularly in the West, over the past few decades.

Study author Louisa L. Roberts aimed to explore whether this decline in religiosity could be attributed to modern social conditions. She analyzed data from the World Values Survey and the European Values Study for the period between 1989 and 2020.

The World Values Survey and European Values Study are large-scale, cross-national research projects that collect data on people’s values, beliefs, and cultural norms across numerous countries and regions. These surveys track changes in societal values over time and provide insights into how cultural, economic, and political factors influence attitudes toward issues such as religion, family, politics, and social trust.

Roberts used two datasets for her analysis. The first included 101 countries with data from 476,758 participants across eight world regions. The second contained data from 96 countries. Roberts first examined the relationship between modern social conditions—existential security, urbanicity, and education—and religiosity at the individual level. She then focused on country-level changes in these factors over time.

The results at the individual level revealed weak associations between modern social conditions and religiosity. However, the direction of these associations varied between world regions, suggesting that these conditions alone are unlikely to affect religiosity. Instead, other factors may influence both religiosity and these conditions.

For instance, urban residence was associated with lower religiosity in all world regions except East Asia, where it correlated with higher religiosity. Similarly, the number of world regions where higher income was associated with lower religiosity was equal to those where higher income was associated with higher religiosity. Longitudinally, increases in national averages of the studied social conditions did not predict decreased religiosity.

“These findings suggest scholars should probably look elsewhere to explain why average religiosity has decreased in some world locations over recent decades,” the study authors concluded.

The study sheds light on the links between modern social conditions and religiosity. However, it should be noted that the results are based on self-reports, which may have been influenced by reporting bias.

The paper, “Do the Three Modern Social Conditions—High Existential Security, Education, and Urbanicity—Really Make People Less Religious? A Worldwide Analysis, 1989–2020,” was authored by Louisa L. Roberts.