MUFG: FX Trump trade to resume

MUFG anticipates a resumption of USD appreciation over the coming months, following a brief pullback post-election. President-elect Trump’s strong mandate and planned policies on trade tariffs, tax cuts, and increased fiscal spending are expected to support higher yields and drive USD strength, particularly over the next 3-6 months.

Key Points:

• Trump Policy Impact: Trump’s policies—tariffs, immigration enforcement, and fiscal expansion—are expected to lift yields and support USD, as markets anticipate swift action.
• Market Positioning: The recent dip in USD reflects an election outcome that was already priced in, but MUFG sees room for renewed USD strength as markets position for policy implementation.
• Medium-Term USD Risks: MUFG acknowledges that medium-term dollar strength may face headwinds as the full impact of these policies becomes clearer, though the short-term outlook favors USD gains.

Conclusion:

MUFG expects the ‘Trump trade’ to resume, with further USD upside in the near term as investors position for anticipated fiscal and trade policies. While medium-term sustainability of this strength is uncertain, a 3-6 month horizon shows strong potential for further USD appreciation.

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This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.