To start trading day and the trading week, the USD is trading down and back up vs most of the major currency pairs. It is mostly lower vs the NZD and the JPY today. In the US debt market yields are higher with the yield curve steepening:
Last week, the two-year yield rose 5.1 basis points, while the 10 year yield rose by 13.3 basis points.
US stocks this morning are trading mixed in the morning snapshot with the futures implying:
Last week:
in other markets:
A technical look at some of the major currency pairs in the forex market shows:
EURUSD: The EURUSD last week moved to a low just below 1.0500 and into a swing area between 1.0483 to 1.0500. The low reached 1.04956. The price has moved up today in up and down trading and in doing so has moved above a higher swing area between 1.05158 to 1.05316.
Looking at the hourly chart below of the pair, the price high today reached up to a high of right near the falling 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below). That MA was tested on Friday and now with the high today stalling at the level, it increases the levels importance going forward. A move above should give buyers more confidence and lead to more upside probing.
USDJPY: on Friday, the USDJPY move down to test the swing highs going back to October 28 and October 29 at 153.88 and 153.86. The low price on Friday reached 153.853. In trading in the early Asian session, the low price reached 153.832 and bounced again. That area near 153.83 and 153.88 will remain as a key support today and going forward this week.
On the top side, in the Asian session as well, the price bounced up to test its 100-hour moving average (blueline on the chart below). The subsequent fall in the early European session stalled against its 200-hour moving average (green line on the chart below, and has since rebounded once again to the 100-hour moving average currently at 155.221. That has increase the levels importance today and going forward. The price is currently trading at 155.115.
If the price can get back above the 100-hour moving average that is more bullish technically. Conversely, a full back lower and away from the 100-hour moving average would have traders looking toward the 38.2% retracement of the November trading range at 154.65 followed by the rising 200-hour moving average at 154.377. Moving below both would increase the bearish bias and give the sellers more confidence.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved to and through a low target going back to June and July at 1.26137 on Friday reaching a low at 1.25853. In trading today, the price moved lower at the open but could only get down to 1.2602 before bouncing. The price is back above the lows from June and July at 1.26137 at 1.2627 currently. Staying above 1.26137 is more positive.
On the topside, the price must get to and above a swing area between 1.26642 and 1.26858. Not shown is the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.26910 just above that swing area high.
The high price today only got to 1.2636 well short of those targets, before rotating back to the downside to test the old lows at 1.26137.
The key level to watch today is that June/July level at 1.26137. If the price can stay above that could be more corrective probing toward the aforementioned swing area above at 1.2664 – 1.26858.
Conversely, if 1.26137 is rebroken, a run back to the downside can be expected
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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