Two-month net revision: +72K vs -86K priorUnemployment rate: 4.1% vs 4.2% priorUnrounded unemployment rate: 4.0510% vs 4.220% priorParticipation rate: 62.7% vs 62.7% priorPrivate payrolls +223K vs 118K priorPrior private payrolls +118K revised to +114KU6 underemployment rate: 7.7% vs 7.9% priorAverage hourly earnings: +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior avg hourly earnings: +0.4% (revised to +0.5%)Average hourly earnings: 4.0% vs +3.8% y/y expectedAverage weekly hours: 34.2 vs 34.3 priorChange in manufacturing payrolls: -7K vs -24K priorHousehold survey: +430K vs +168K priorGovernment jobs: +31K vs +24K priorFull time: +631K vs -438K priorPart time: -201K vs +527K priorFull report
Prior to the data, the market was pricing in a 32% of the Fed lowering rates by 50 basis points at the November 7 meeting. USD/JPY was trading at 146.58 ahead of the numbers.
The unemployment rate very nearly fell to 4.0% and this is the strongest headline reading since March. I think you can bury the idea of 50 basis points on this, even if the October report is soft.
The US dollar understandably jumped on this report as it’s very difficult to poke holes in any of it. USD/JPY is particularly strong, now up 160 pips since the report to 148.18.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
