The Westpac Leading Index was published earlier:
Australia leading index in September shows still very slow growth ahead
In their report WPAC conclude with what they expect from the RBA at the final two meetings this year:
The Reserve Bank Board next meets on November 4–5. We continue to expect no change in the cash rate target rate at this meeting or at the Board’s last meeting for the year, in December. However, we do expect to see a shift in the Board’s messaging with a move away from the ‘inflation vigilance’ that has dominated its communication in 2024. The exact timing and nature of this will depend on the dataflow – the September quarter CPI update due on October 30, and the September quarter national accounts updates on December 4 in particular. Combined, these updates should provide enough comfort around the inflation outlook and confirmation of the sluggish growth pulse evident in Leading Index for the RBA to start looking ahead to less restrictive policy.
If I recall correctly analysts at the bank are looking for the first RBA cut in Q1 of 2025.
CBA still expect a December rate cut, citing clearly slowing inflation:
AUD: CBA maintains base case December RBA 25bp rate cut – see firmer disinflationary pulse
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
