The European data was yucky (if I can use a favorite word of my grandson). All the data from German GDP, to UK retail sales and flash services and manufacturing data missed the expectations. Only one, UK flash services PMI, was 50.0 or better and it came in right at 50.0.
Below is summary of that data. Yucky:
- EUR German Final GDP q/q: MISSED – Actual 0.1% vs. Forecast 0.2%, Previous 0.2%.
- GBP Retail Sales m/m: MISSED – Actual -0.7% vs. Forecast -0.3%, Previous 0.1%.
- EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED – Actual 43.2 vs. Forecast 44.6, Previous 44.5.
- EUR French Flash Services PMI: MISSED – Actual 45.7 vs. Forecast 49.1, Previous 49.2.
- EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED – Actual 43.2 vs. Forecast 43.1, Previous 43.0.
- EUR German Flash Services PMI: MISSED – Actual 49.4 vs. Forecast 51.6, Previous 51.6.
- EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED – Actual 45.2 vs. Forecast 46.0, Previous 46.0.
- EUR Flash Services PMI: MISSED – Actual 49.2 vs. Forecast 51.6, Previous 51.6.
- GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI: MISSED – Actual 48.6 vs. Forecast 50.0, Previous 49.9.
- GBP Flash Services PMI: MISSED – Actual 50.0 vs. Forecast 51.9, Previous 52.0.
The data pushed the EUR and GBP lower. The CHF also moved lower in sympathy. The USDJPY saw the JPY move lower but then move back to unchanged. For the commodity currencies, they are also weaker vs. the USD.
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel emphasized the importance of Switzerland maintaining a flexible inflation target, which has allowed the central bank to respond effectively to economic shocks. He highlighted the central bank’s primary tools as the policy rate and foreign exchange interventions. Schlegel noted that the global economic slowdown has impacted Switzerland more significantly due to the franc’s appreciation, acknowledging its role as a safe-haven currency. He reaffirmed the SNB’s commitment to ensuring price stability amidst these challenges.
Next week, the RBNZ will meet. A Reuters poll released yesterday sees a 50 bp cut to 4.25% from 4.75% currently.
Yields are lower in Europe and the US to start the day:
- German -8.4 bps
- UK -4.9 bps
- France -9.0 bps
- Spain -9.1 bps
- Italy -6.8 bps
In the US:
- 2 year -2.3 bps
- 5 year -3.6 bps
- 10 year -4.2 bps
- 30 year -4.1 bps
Stocks are mixed in Europe with German Dax up 0.34%, France’s CAC up 0.10 and UK FTSE 100 up 0.93%.
In the US, the futures are implying mixed levels:
- Dow +27.35 points. Yesterday the index rose 461 points or 1.06%
- S&P -3.71 points. Yesterday the index rose 31.60 points or 0.53%
- Nasdaq -28.75 points. Yesterday the index rose 6.28 points or 0.03%
For the week, going into the last day of trading this wee:
- Dow up 0.98%
- S&P up 1.33%
- Nasdaq up 1.56%
IN other markets:
- Crude oil is -$0.78 at $69.36
- Gold is up $28.83 or 1.07% at $2698
- Bitcoin reached a new high at $99.500 just short of BITCOIN $100K. The price is currently trading at $98,500. The low today reached $97,956.
Today Canada retail sales (Est +0.4% and ex-auto +0.5%) will be released at 8:30 along with Canada New Housing prices (last 0.0%).
Later at 9:45 AM ET, the US S&P Global PMI flash data will be released with Manufacturing expected at 48.8 vs 47.8 last month. The Services is estimated at 55.2 vs 55.3 last month. University of Michigan Final for November is expected at 73.7 vs 73.0 preliminary and 70.5 last month with 1 year inflation 2.6% and 5 year inflation at 3.1%.
A look at the technicals for some of the major currency pairs going into the day shows:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD fell on the data today and breached the 50% of the trading range since the 2022 low (to the 2023 high). That level comes in at 1.04053. On the daily chart, if go back to 2022 swing lows and highs from May, June and August, that area came in at 1.03485 to 1.03678. The selling did not stop until reaching 1.0332. Since then the price has bounced higher to 1.04368. The 38.2% of the move down from the high this week comes in at 1.04372. Staying below that retracement makes the correction a plain-vanilla variety. It would take a move above to give the buyers a glimpse of victory. Absent that, and they are losing. THe 50% of the range since 2022 (not shown) at 1.0405 is where the US session is beginning. Move below with momentum could give the sellers more confidence to push back toward the lows. Stay above, and a battle between 38.2% on hourly and 50% on the daily is likely.
- USDJPY: The USDJP is watching the show in Europe today. Looking at the hourly chart below, the low for the day in the Asian session stalled at the 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart (blue line currently at 153.933. The subsequent move higher saw the price get above the 100-hour MA at 154.719, but find willing sellers at the 200 hour MA at 154.946. The price at 154.53 is in the middle of the support and resistance targets.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD fell below the 50% on the daily chart below at 1.26147 yesterday, continuing that momentum lower in trading today. the price fell on the data to and through a trend line on the daily at 1.2497. The low reached 1.2487 before bouncing back higher. The current price is at 1.2512. Today, look for more momentum below the support near the natural support at 1.2500 and the trend line at 1.2497. The first break failed. Will a second break?
Looking at the 4-hour chart of GBPUSD below, it will take a move back above 1.2596 to 1.26137 to hur the bearish bias in the pair. Sellers in firm control in the GBPUSD below that old floor area (now a ceiling).
WIll the USD PMI be yucky too today and reverse the USD higher move seen so far today?
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
